Eve of the civil war Essay -- essays research papers

On the eve of the Civil War, the United States was a nation divided into four quite distinct regions: the Northeast, with a growing industrial and commercial economy and an increasing density of population; the Northwest, now known as the Midwest, a rapidly expanding region of free farmers where slavery had been forever prohibited under the Northwest Ordinance; the Upper South, with a settled plantation system and (in some areas) declining economic fortunes; and the Southwest, a booming frontier-like region with an expanding cotton economy. With two fundamentally different labor systems at their base, the economic and social changes across the nation's geographical regions – based on wage labor in the North and on slavery in the South – underlay distinct visions of society that had emerged by the mid-nineteenth century in the North and in the South. Before the Civil War, the Constitution provided a basis for peaceful debate over the future of government, and had been able to regulate conflicts of interest and conflicting visions for the new, rapidly expanding nation. For many years, compromises had been made to balance the number of "free states" and "slave states" so that there would be a balance in the Senate. The last slave state admitted was Texas in 1845, with five free states admitted between 1846 and 1859. The admission of Kansas as a slave state had recently been blocked, and it was due to enter as a free state instead in 1861. The rise of mass d... Eve of the civil war Essay -- essays research papers On the eve of the Civil War, the United States was a nation divided into four quite distinct regions: the Northeast, with a growing industrial and commercial economy and an increasing density of population; the Northwest, now known as the Midwest, a rapidly expanding region of free farmers where slavery had been forever prohibited under the Northwest Ordinance; the Upper South, with a settled plantation system and (in some areas) declining economic fortunes; and the Southwest, a booming frontier-like region with an expanding cotton economy. With two fundamentally different labor systems at their base, the economic and social changes across the nation's geographical regions – based on wage labor in the North and on slavery in the South – underlay distinct visions of society that had emerged by the mid-nineteenth century in the North and in the South. Before the Civil War, the Constitution provided a basis for peaceful debate over the future of government, and had been able to regulate conflicts of interest and conflicting visions for the new, rapidly expanding nation. For many years, compromises had been made to balance the number of "free states" and "slave states" so that there would be a balance in the Senate. The last slave state admitted was Texas in 1845, with five free states admitted between 1846 and 1859. The admission of Kansas as a slave state had recently been blocked, and it was due to enter as a free state instead in 1861. The rise of mass d...

Aristotles Definition of Nature :: essays research papers

Aristotle’s Definition of Nature Nature, in its essence, is the cause/effect relationship offered to things with ascertainable objectivity, occurring without cause. From this we can logically state that the nature of something (something being an object with "thinghood", as humorously described in class) is its beginning, purpose and stereo-type. There are two debatable definitions of nature, which under scrutiny are seemingly very similar. On the left hand, we have nature described as "the first, inchoate, thing belonging to it". Simply, an object’s nature is it’s core material – i.e., the nature of my couch would be polystyrene foam. On the other, we have nature described as "the shape or look". This statement points to nature as the stereo-type of an object, that is, my couch dose not have the nature of a couch until it assumes the look of a completed, stereo-typical couch. When examining these definitions it is hard to find a large degree of difference as the stereo-typical couch is not only composed of those parts generally used to construct a couch, but also its acceptance and appearance as a couch. For further clarification we can examine Aristotle’s example of a doctor healing himself. A artisan of medicine dose not have the nature of a healer, as that would imply that he came about this skill naturally, which is not the case. For something to have nature, that nature must come into being without cause. Therefor we can assume that the healer, being an artisan of medicine, is a healer but has the nature of a stereo-typical human being. What then, causes differences amongst couches and people, even between healer A and healer B? This question is answered by exploring the idea of chance. By chance variations are made upon things (with thinghood) not to it’s nature, but to it’s physical or otherwise growth from it’s nature. For this reason we must assume that all things have a categorical nature, with variations to it’s structure.

David Berman Essay

David Berman reviewed the macroeconomic numbers on inventory turns as he prepared for his regular appearance on CNBC’s â€Å"Squawk Box† as a morning co-host. A leading expert on â€Å"consumer related† stocks, Berman and his colleagues including portfolio manager Steve Kernkraut, a seasoned retail executive and analyst, were frequent contributors to various TV shows. On April 4th 2005, Fortune magazine ran a story on Berman called â€Å"King of the Retail Jungle†, and on December 13th, 2004, Barron’s ran a story called â€Å"Smart Shopper† where Berman’s four stock picks as identified, appreciated 30% on average over the next quarter. â€Å"Off air† he was a fund manager as well as founder and president of Berman Capital (which managed proprietary funds) and founder of and general partner in New York-based Durban Capital, L.P. (which managed outside and proprietary capital). Glancing at his notes on macro trends in retail inven tory turns, Berman wondered if he should talk about his impressions on the show. Berman held a bachelors degree in finance and masters equivalency in accountancy from the University of Cape Town in South Africa. He had also passed the South African chartered accountant and the United States CPA examinations. Berman obtained his CPA qualification in California while an auditor for Arthur Andersen and Company where he examined the financial statements and operations of a number of retail clients. He had been the auditor of Bijan, the notable men’s upscale clothing store on Rodeo Drive and 5th Avenue. Prior to starting his own funds Berman worked as a portfolio manager and analyst primarily at two Wall Street firms. He evolved his investment style under the tutelage of Michael Steinhardt of Steinhardt Partners, which he joined shortly after graduating with distinction from Harvard Business School in 1991. From 1994 to 1997 Berman worked in consumer-related stocks at another large hedge fund. He subsequently launched Berman Capital in 1997 and Durban Capital i n 2001. Professor Ananth Raman of Harvard Business School, Professor Vishal Gaur of the Stern School of Business at New York University, and Harvard Business School Doctoral Candidate Saravanan Kesavan prepared this case. Certain details have been disguised. HBS cases are developed solely as the basis for class discussion. Cases are not intended to serve as endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of effective or ineffective management. Copyright  © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685, write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to http://www.hbsp.harvard.edu. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of Harvard Business School. Copying or posting is an infringement of copyright. Permissions@hbsp.harvard.edu or 617-783-7860. 605-081David Berman Berman believed that his training as an accountant together with his MBA and practices he developed over the years to refine accounting estimates enabled him to notice aspects of retail accounts that would be missed by most investors. The relationship between inventory and earnings and therefore share price, for example, while obvious to a retailer, was seldom recognized by analysts or investors. â€Å"This relationship,† Berman observed, â€Å"is ASTOUNDINGLY powerful, but surprisingly few understand why. Most think it’s just a function of inventory risk. It’s not. It’s primarily a function of how the operating margins can be manipulated by management in the short term by playing around with inventories†. â€Å"For example,† said Berman, â€Å"if a retailer’s inventories are growing much faster than sales, then gross margins would be higher than they ordinarily should be, as the retailer has not taken the mark-downs that a solid disc iplined retailer should take.† â€Å"Interestingly,† Berman beamed, â€Å"there is no law in GAAP that limits the number of days’ inventory to any â€Å"norm,† and as such, the practice of increasing inventories beyond any â€Å"norm† goes unfettered.† Berman continued â€Å"managements sign-off on the inventories as being fairly valued, and the auditors pretty much rely on their word.† Berman believed that â€Å"from an investor’s perspective, it’s a game of musical chairs; you don’t want to be the last person standing. In other words, you don’t want to be an investor when sales slow and when mark-downs of the bloated inventory finally need to be taken to move the goods†. The relationship of inventories to sales was also an important one that Berman focused on. â€Å"In a period of rising inventories on a square foot basis†, Berman says â€Å"it is quite obvious that same store sales should rise as the offering to the customer is that much greater. Simply put, the more offerings you put in a store, ceteris paribus, the bigger sales should be.† â€Å"It is at this time,† Berman argued, â€Å"that the stock price rises, as investors place higher valuations on retailers with higher sales, despite that this higher valuation is achieved primarily due to the higher inventories†. An excellent example of the inventory to sales relationship was Home Depot: In 2001 and 2002 Home Depot’s new CEO, Bob Nardelli1, seemed to struggle in managing the transition from a cash-flow GE-type philosophy to a retailer Home Depot-type philosophy. In his DeeBee Report2 dated June 10th 2003, Berman stated: â€Å"Bob Nardelli learned the power of inventory the hard way. In focusing on cash flow improvement, he dramatically lowered inventories – and yes, increased cash balances – only to see a huge decline in same store sales, and in its stock price {the stock went from around $40 to $22}. And so, under immense pressure, Nardelli reversed course and focused intensely on increasing inventories. Since Q2 of last year, inventories had been building until they were up 25% year over year. And yes, same store sales did improve, as did the stock price.† Recognizing this as potentially a short-fix, Berman continued â€Å"Now the cynical would view this increase in sales with skepticism, noting that it wasn’t of â€Å"high quality† as it was due, in part, to the massive inventory build. It is, however, pleasing to note that Home Depot simply got inventories back to â€Å"normal†, in that it now has turns similar to its’ competitors†. The stock, following the same store sales and earnings increases, which in essence followed the inventories increase, rose from $22 at the start of 2003 to $36 by the end of 2003. When asked about this â€Å"fix†, Berman responded â€Å"it will be more challenging for Nardelli to increase same store sales and margins going forward because his increasing inventories and therefore same store sales is arguably a one-time benefit and is essentially what caused the â€Å"fix†. Berman concluded by 1 Nardelli had worked at General Electric (GE) before taking over as CEO of the Home Depot. 2 A periodic report where Berman discusses his thoughts on retail, focusing on inventories. Given his insights as articulated, Berman believed his fund could value firms more accurately through better valuation of inventory. This was pivotal to his investment strategy. â€Å"You see,† Berman elaborated, â€Å"Wall Street basically ignores inventory. It’s actually quite amazing to me! This gives us one of our edges.† Comparing recently gathered retailer numbers that examined total sales in the U.S. economy to total inventory, for almost 300 retailers, Berman remarked: â€Å"The total sales to total inventory numbers is also a crucial relationship over time, and it gives us a macro edge, if that’s possible to believe. Indeed, at the end of Q2, 2003 I knew there would be serious inventory rebuilding in the economy going forward, as overall sales had grown at a faster rate than inventories. Indeed, in Q3, 2003 we saw a rapid and unexpected increase in GDP from 2.3% to 3.5% thanks in part to inventory rebuilding. This increase continued through Q1, 2 004 when GDP growth reached 5%.† Berman loved to discuss investment opportunities he had spotted by looking carefully at firm inventory: One of the clearest examples was Saucony (Nasdaq: SCNYA), a shoe company based near Boston, MA. Berman identified this company as a strong buy when he noticed in 2003 that even though sales were flattish, inventories had declined about 20% year over year. To Berman, this bode well for future gross margins. He started buying the stock at $14 in late 2003 due primarily to these lean inventories, despite that the stock was illiquid thus presenting greater risk, and despite that management was remarkably coy about sharing information. A year later, the stock had doubled. During this time period, sales rose, as did inventories, and of course, the gross margin expanded significantly, as expected. Earnings per share rose from $0.85 in 2002 to $1.29 in 2004. Berman’s selling, which came shortly after management asked him to ring the Nasdaq bell with them, was again based on a function  of his inventory analysis. This time it was the opposite scenario – inventories were now growing at the same pace as sales, so the trend of sales to inventories had deteriorated – and Berman was worried. To make matters worse, calls to management were not being returned. Sure enough, in March 2005, before Berman had gotten out of this illiquid position, Saucony announced it would miss earnings estimates and the stock cratered 20%. Yet another clear example was Bombay (NYSE: BBA). In November 2003, Bombay Company, a fashionable home accessories, wall dà ©cor, and furniture retailer, announced that sales were up 19% with inventories up 50% year over year. While the retailer beat earnings estimates, the company spoke of early November sales weakness, and the stock declined 20% that day to $10. Despite the decline, and noticing that inventories were up way too much, Berman felt the â€Å"music had stopped.† â€Å"Going into Q4 it was clear they would have to miss numbers again unless the consumer saved them, which would be a shocker†, he said. Just over two weeks later they lowered earnings again and the stock crated another 20% to $8. Remarkably, just four weeks later, after Christmas, management lowered earnings yet again, and the stock declined yet another 20%. â€Å"It was so sweet† exclaimed Berman, â€Å"to see the classic inventory / earnings relationship at work so quickly.† In just one and a half months, the stock declined 50% primarily because of inventory mismanagement along with weaker sales. As Berman prepared to leave for the studio, Christina Zinn, a young apprentice he had just hired from Harvard Business School, walked in and presented him with a stack of papers containing the valuation of John B. River (John B. River Clothiers, Inc. NASDAQ: JONR). â€Å"JONR is undervalued,† Zinn remarked, â€Å"and I think we should invest in this stock. Sales were up 24% in 2004 over the previous year, and gross margins, having risen for four straight years, seem to have peaked at 60% (one of the highest gross margins in all of US retail). 2005, the company’s price/earnings ratio is less than that of its primary competitor, Men’s Wearhouse, which is at 17.5 times estimated earnings. This is particularly strange given that John B. River has been growing faster than Men’s Wearhouse during the last few years.† Inventory Productivity in the Retail Sector Inventory turnover, the ratio of cost of goods sold to average inventory level, was commonly used to measure the performance of inventory managers, compare inventory productivity across retailers, and assess performance improvements over time.3 But wide variations in the annual inventory turnover of U.S. retailers year to year not only across, but also within, firms made it difficult to assess inventory productivity in practice, as evidenced by the following example and questions. Between 1987 and 2000 annual inventory turnover at Best Buy Stores, Inc. (Best Buy), a consumer electronics retailer, ranged from 2.85 to 8.53. Annual inventory turnover at three peer retailers during the same period exhibited similar variation: at Circuit City Stores, Inc. from 3.97 to 5.60; at Radio Shack Corporation from 1.45 to 3.05; and at CompUSA, Inc. from 6.20 to 8.65. Given such variation how could inventory turnover be used to assess these retailers’ inventory productivity? Could these variations be correlated with better or worse performance? Could it be reasonably concluded from this example that Best Buy managed its inventory better than Radio Shack? Inventory turnover could be correlated with other performance measures. Strong correlations, as between inventory turnover and gross margin, might have implications for the assessment of retailers’ inventory turnover performance. (Figure 1 plots the four consumer electronics retailers’ annual inventory turnover against their gross margins (the ratio of gross profit net of markdowns to net sales) for the period 1987-2000.) Relationships among Management Measures Relationships among inventory turns, gross margins, and capital intensity were central to deriving suitable benchmarks for assessing corporate performance. (Figure 2 presents a simplified view of an income statement and balance sheet. Table 1 presents mathematical definitions for inventory turnover, gross margin, capital intensity, return on assets, sales growth, and other management measures based on Figure 2 .) Whereas return on assets, sales growth, return on equity, and financial leverage tended not to vary systematically from one retail segment to another, variation in the components of return on assets was observed between and within industry segments. (Table 2 lists retail segments4 and examples of firms.) Table 3 presents gross margins, inventory turns, GMROI5, and asset turns for supermarkets, drugstores, convenience stores, apparel retailers, jewelry retailers, and toy stores.) Retailers with stable, predictable demand and long product lifecycles such as grocery, drug, and convenience stores tended to have better â€Å"efficiency ratios† (asset turns and inventory turns) than other retailers, retailers of short lifecycle products such as apparel, shoes, electronics, jewelry, and An alternative measure of inventory productivity, days of inventory, could be substituted for inventory turnover for the present analysis. Classification of segments is based on S&P’s Compustat database. GMROI is defined as gross margin return on inventory investment. Variation in gross margins, inventory turns, and SG&A expenses within and between segments ROE could be decomposed into gross margin and inventory turns, and further into the relationship between capital intensity and inventory turns (see below).Anticipating roughly similar ROE measures for different retailers, all else remaining equal, a change in any of the component metrics on the right side of the equation would be expected to result in a compensating change in some other component metric. For example, for ROE among retailers to be equivalent a retailer with higher gross margins would need to experience a compensating change in some other component, such as inventory turns. Gross margin and inventory turns: Gross margin and inventory turns were expected to be negatively correlated, that is, an increase in gross margin was expected to be accompanied by a decrease in inventory turnover. A retailer that carried a unit of product longer before selling it (i.e., a retailer with slower inventory turns) would expect to earn substantially more on its inventory investment than a retailer that carried the inventory item for a shorter period. For example, Radio Shack, which turned its inventory less frequently than twice a year,  was expected to realize higher gross margins on each sale than retailers such as CompUSA, which turned its inventory more than eight times per year. Retailers such as Radio Shack were said to be following the â€Å"profit path† (i.e., earning high profit with each sale), retailers such as CompUSA the â€Å"turnover path† (i.e., earning quickly after making an inventory investment small profits with each sale). Retailers within the same segment were expected to achieve equivalent inventory productivity. Inventory productivity could be estimated as the product of a firm’s gross margins and inventory turns, termed gross margin return on inventory investment or GMROI (pronounced â€Å"JIMROY†). If GMROI remained stable within a segment an inverse relationship between gross margin and inventory turns would be observed. (Figure 3 depicts the expected relationship.) A correlation between gross margin and inventory turns, although expected, did not, however, imply a causal relationship between the two variables. That is, a firm that increased its gross margin by better managing its inventory turns would not necessarily decline commensurately. The correlation between gross margin and inventory turns could instead reflect mutual dependence on the characteristics of a retailer’s business. Capital intensity and inventory turns: Investments in warehouses, information technology, and inventory and logistics management systems involved capital investment, which, being accounted for as fixed assets, was measured by an increase in capital intensity. Firms that made such capital investments often enjoyed higher inventory turns. Hence, inventory turns could be positively correlated with capital intensity. That an increase in inventory turnover and concurrent decrease in gross margin was not necessarily indicative of improved inventory management capability suggested limits to the use of inventory turnover in performance analysis. If, however, two firms had similar inventory turnover and gross margin values but different capital intensities the firm with the lower capital intensity might possibly have better inventory management capability. It was thus desirable to incorporate changes in gross margin and capital intensity into evaluations of inventory productivity. Zinn’s Analysis of John B. River Berman fidgeted in his chair. He enjoyed opportunities to evangelize to and educate television audiences, but found the wait in the studio tedious. Until called to hold forth on various aspects of managerial performance and investment strategy he would, he decided, wade through the report Zinn had prepared for him. Company Background On November 8, 2004 John B. River Clothiers, Inc., a leading U.S. retailer of men’s tailored and casual clothing and accessories, opened its 250th store. The retailer employed, in addition to the physical store format, two other channels: catalogs, and the Internet. Production of John B. River’s designs according to its specifications was contracted to third party vendors and suppliers. John B. River’s product suite, intended to dress a male career professional from head to toe, was identified with high quality and value. Its upscale, classic product offerings included tuxedos, blazers, shirts, ties, vests, pants, and sports wear. Excepting branded shoes from other vendors, all products were marketed under the John B. River brand. Trends in workplace clothing were an important determinant of John B. River sales growth. Thus, the early 1990s trend towards acceptability of informal clothing in the workplace was cause for concern to a retailer that emphasized men’s formal suits. But in the early 2000’s the pendulum seemed to swing back, with increasing numbers of employees preferring to dress more formally for the workplace. The material in this section is from John B. River Clothiers, Inc’s 2004 10-K Statement Retail stores were John B. River’s primary sales channel. Eighty percent of store space was dedicated to selling activities, the remaining 20% allocated to stockroom and tailoring and other support activities. Tailoring was a differentiating service highly valued by the retailer’s clientele. John B. River catered to high-end customers and so located its retail stores in areas with appropriate demographics. Its seven outlet stores provided a channel for liquidating excess merchandise. John B. River’s catalog and Internet channels accounted for approximately 11% of net sales in fiscal 2003 and 12% of net sales in fiscal 2002. Approximately eight million catalogs were distributed over these two years. Catalog sales were supported by a toll-free number that provided access to sales associates. The primary competitors of John B. River were Men’s Wearhouse Inc. (Ticker: MW) and Brooks Brothers (privately held). Apart from competing with these  specialty retailers, John B. River competed with large department stores such as Macy’s and Filenes, which enjoyed substantially greater financial and marketing resources. Supply Chain John B. River’s merchandise buying and planning staff used sophisticated information systems to convey product designs and specifications to suppliers and third party contract manufacturers and manage the production process worldwide. Approximately 24% of product purchases in fiscal 2003 were sourced from U.S. suppliers. Mexico accounted for 15% and none of the other countries from which products were sourced accounted for more than 10% of purchases. An agent was employed to source products from countries located in or near Asia. All inventory was received at a centralized distribution center (CDC), from which it was redistributed to warehouses or directly to stores. Store inventory was tracked using point-of-sale information and stock was replenished as necessary. John B. River expected to spend between $3 and $4 million in fiscal 2004 to increase the capacity of its CDC to accommodate 500 stores nationwide. Growth Strategy and Risks John B. River had developed a five-pronged strategy for achieving growth. First, it planned to further enhance product quality by elevating standards for design and manufacture. Second, it planned to expand catalog and internet operations. Third, it intended to introduce new products. Fourth, it was moving towards eliminating middlemen from the sourcing of products Fifth, it was committed to providing consistently high service levels by maintaining high inventory levels. Anticipating that growth relied on opening new stores, John B. River planned to expand to 500 stores. Approximately 60 stores were opened in fiscal 2004, increasing store count to 273, and about 75 to 100 stores were planned from  2005-08. Upfront costs associated with opening a new store included approximately $225,000 for leasehold improvements, fixtures, point-of-sale equipment, and so forth and an inventory investment of approximately $350,000, with higher inventory levels during peak periods. John B. River’s growth strategy was sensitive to consumer spending. John B. River relied on its emphasis on classic styles to retain a niche in men’s suits, a strategy that rendered it less vulnerable to changes in fashions but dependent on continued demand for classic styles. Zinn’s Analysis of John B. River’s Financial Statements Inventory: John B. River used the first-in-first out method to value inventory. During price increases FIFO valuation generated higher net income than LIFO valuation. John B. River’s inventory had been growing rapidly over the past four years. Zinn was surprised by the inventory growth, especially that inventory had grown faster than sales. Although inventory grew by 54% in 2003, corresponding sales growth was only 23%. In 2004 however, sales grew 24% while inventory grew by only 4%. Inventory at the end of 2004 however continued to be high at 303 days. Further the days’ payables increased from 54 days in 1998 to 82 days in 2004. Payables as a percentage of inventory however had declined from roughly 33% in 1998 to roughly 27% in 2004. But Zinn was not sure these concerns had much impact on her valuation of the company. Financial ratios: Current ratio and quick ratio had been hovering around 2 and 0.2, respectively.10,11 The large difference between these two ratios reflected the fact that most of John B. River’s current assets were inventory. Obsolescence costs would consequently be fairly high and could place the retailer in financial distress. The other financial ratios were indicative of a healthy company. ROE had increased from 15% to 27% since fiscal 2000. This increase had been largely fueled by an increasing profit margin (0.7% to 5.5% over the same period). John B. River had enjoyed rapid growth in sales over the last few years. Annual Sales growth had increased from 9% in 1998 to 24% in 2004, fueled by sales growth in existing stores (approximately 8% per year) as well as the opening of new stores and increased sales from the retailer’s catalog and internet channels. John B. River enjoyed a healthy increase in gross margins from 51% to 60% over the same period. Tables 4 and 5 provide key operational metrics for John B. River and Men’s Wearhouse. Prospective Analysis: Zinn had taken the Business Analysis and Valuation (BAV) class at HBS and discovered the â€Å"BAV tool.†12 She had used this tool to create a simpler model (used in the present analysis) to capture key aspects of valuation. Table 6 provides some key historical operational metrics for John B. River that Zinn used for her prospective analysis. Current ratio, defined as the ratio of current assets to current liabilities, was an indicator of a company’s ability to meet short-term debt obligations; the higher the ratio the more liquid the company. Quick ratio (or acid-test ratio), defined as the ratio of (cash + accounts receivable) to current liabilities, measured a company’s liquidity. The BAV tool was an Excel-based model developed by Harvard Business School faculty for valuing companies. Key assumptions made by Zinn in performing the prospective analysis of John B. River included the following. 1) Time horizon: Zinn chose a five year time horizon from 2005 to 2009 based on expected sales growth (derived from management projections). Beyond 2009 Zinn assumed the company to have reached a steady state defined by terminal values. 2) Sales growth: Zinn assumed that management’s projections for new stores were reasonable and that the new stores would be equivalent in size and productivity with the retailer’s existing stores. Using growth assumptions about stores and same store sales, Zinn computed sales growth for fiscal years 2005-2008 to be 18% (based on 15% square footage growth and 3% same store sale growth), and 10% for 2009. Sales after 2010 in Zinn’s analysis were expected to grow at the 4% industry standard for retail apparel stores13. 3) Gross margin: Gross margin had been steadily increasing; Zinn expected it to hover around 60% for the next five years and then assumed gross margin to reach its terminal value to reflect increased competition. 4) Other assumptions about the income statement: Zinn assumed that SG&A to sales and other operating expenses to sales would continue at the 2004 levels for the near term (till 2008). 5) Assumptions about the balance sheet: Zinn assumed that current assets to sales, current liabilities to sales, and long term assets to sales would continue at their 2004 levels, that is, the company would maintain a similar capital structure and remain as productive with its long term assets as in 2003. Zinn obtained terminal values from industry norms for â€Å"Men’s and boys’ clothing stores†14. The market risk premium was assumed to be 5%, risk free rate 4.3%, marginal tax rate 42%, and cost of debt 4.5%. Based on these assumptions, the value of a JONR share was estimated to be $43.58. Given the current (April 11th, 2005) closing price of $34.37 (see Figure 4 for historical stock prices of JONR), Zinn rated the stock a â€Å"strong buy.† You’re On the Air in Five Minutes! Berman knew he had to return to thinking about the bigger questions that would be posed by the host of the TV show. Yet he could not take his mind off of Zinn’s analysis. Berman smiled, knowing that his apprentice’s results were diametrically opposed to his own intuition. He recollected his conversation with the CEO and CFO of John B. River during one of the quarterly earnings calls when he was trying to learn about the retailer. When questioned about the steep increase in inventory, the CEO had mentioned that John B. River was planning to grow inventory in certain basic items like white shirts, khaki pants etc. as well as increase product variety to enhance service levels to its customers. Berman was not sure about this strategy of John B. River and wondered if the company’s gross margins were temporarily inflated based on increased inventories over the years. On the other hand, inventory management had improved of late. As reported on the 4th April 2005, Q4, 20 04 sales had increased 24% while inventories were up only 4% year over year.

Succubus Dreams CHAPTER 8

â€Å"Succubus.† Dante's laconic voice was the last thing I'd expected to hear when my phone rang the next day. I'd forgotten that I'd left him my number. My surprise quickly gave way to eagerness. Maybe he'd found something for me. No energy loss had occurred after the auction, but then, I hadn't taken a victim either. It wasn't much to go on, but that small pattern Dante had pointed out was still a place to start, and I hoped he'd have more to offer now. â€Å"Hey! What's up?† I sat down on the couch. I'd been getting ready to go out with Seth later, applying makeup the old-fashioned way in order to conserve shape-shifting energy. I'd need to cash in on my auction date sooner rather than later to get some power back. There was a pause from the other end of the line before Dante spoke again. â€Å"I've been thinking†¦I've been thinking we're going about all of this the wrong way.† Very unexpected. â€Å"Really?† â€Å"Yeah. I wasn't taking it seriously, so I understand why you were getting pissed off.† Hearing him admit how he'd been blowing my problems off wasn't exactly cheering, but I appreciated his honesty. â€Å"Well†¦it's okay. I'm just glad we can maybe figure something out now. I'm getting anxious.† â€Å"Me too.† More silence, then I heard him take a deep breath. â€Å"So, have you ever been to El Gaucho?† The reference to one of Seattle's downtown steakhouses was such a non sequitur that I couldn't respond for several seconds. When I did speak, it wasn't very articulate. â€Å"What?† â€Å"It's a restaurant. Down on First – â€Å" â€Å"Yeah, yeah. I know what it is. What's it have to do with the dreams?† â€Å"Dreams? What are you talking about?† â€Å"What are you – oh, Jesus Christ. Are you asking me out?† â€Å"Of course I am. What the fuck would El Gaucho have to do with those dreams?† I groaned. â€Å"I can't believe this. I actually thought you had something useful for me.† â€Å"I'm trying to be nice here! Look, the dreams are a lost cause, but we aren't. You were right when you said I was being sleazy and treating you like you were cheap. So give me a break! I'm trying to have sex with you the right way.† I found this even freakier than when Dante had suggested the place with the happy hour beer. â€Å"I don't want to have sex with you, okay? I want your help with my problems. And how many times do I have to tell you that I have a boyfriend?† â€Å"As many times as you want. I just don't buy that that's a real relationship. Particularly after you sold yourself for seventeen-hundred dollars last night.† â€Å"How do you know about that?† â€Å"It was in the paper.† â€Å"That date doesn't count.† â€Å"Can a date with me not count?† â€Å"No! For the last time, I have a boyfriend. I'm going out with him tonight.† â€Å"To El Gaucho?† I hung up. I was working my hair over with a curling iron later on when I heard knocking at my front door. Walking toward the living room, I felt immortal signatures on the other side. Fortunately, there was nothing musky or slimy here. These were familiar and welcome. Of course, they weren't exactly welcome tonight. â€Å"What are you guys doing here?† I asked, opening the door to admit Peter, Cody, and Hugh. My three stooges. The dwarves to my Snow White. â€Å"And why do you always show up when I'm about to go out?† Like always, they made themselves comfortable in my living room without any further invitation. Cody handed me a slip that had been stuck to the door from my building's office manager, saying I had a package. I made a mental note to pick it up the next time the office was open. â€Å"We're going over to that place that makes the unholy margaritas,† he said. â€Å"Thought we'd stop by and see if you wanted to go.† â€Å"And here you are, ungrateful and mean,† said Peter. He glanced around the living room. â€Å"I don't see a Christmas tree here.† Hugh was eyeing my red-silk robe. â€Å"You going out in that?† â€Å"Of course not. I'm just getting ready, that's all.† The three of them exchanged looks. â€Å"Is it business or Seth?† asked Hugh. â€Å"Seth.† â€Å"Damn it,† swore Peter. He pulled some crumpled money out of his pocket and handed it to Hugh. â€Å"You guys bet on my love life?† â€Å"Yeah,† said Hugh. â€Å"All the time. You should see the stakes we've got riding on when you and Seth are finally going to sleep together.† â€Å"Well, keep 'em riding, cowboy. It's not going to happen.† I crossed my arms and leaned against the wall near my TV. â€Å"Of course, Niphon's trying pretty hard to make it happen. Is he in on the bet?† â€Å"Not yet. What's he doing?† asked Cody. I told them about the offer Niphon had made for Seth's soul. To my surprise, they didn't share my shock and outrage. â€Å"I don't know,† said Hugh slowly. â€Å"I've kind of thought about that before.† I gaped. â€Å"Thought about what before? Buying Seth's soul?† â€Å"Sure. It's what I do, and hey, if it'd help you†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Oh dear lord.† â€Å"But if you decide to do it,† said Hugh warningly, â€Å"come to me first. I can beat any offer Niphon makes.† â€Å"If you broker the deal, you're disqualified for the bet,† warned Peter. â€Å"Hey!† cried Hugh. â€Å"That's not right.† â€Å"Sure it is. You'd have an unfair advantage – â€Å" â€Å"Christ. Be quiet, all of you. I can't believe you guys are seriously talking about buying my boyfriend's – â€Å" A new signature swept through to us. A scent liked candied apples. Warm honey on the skin. â€Å"Tawny,† we all said in unison. I opened the door, and Tawny threw herself into my arms, bawling. I yelped and tried not to fall over. â€Å"Oh, Georgina,† she sobbed, mascara running in black rivers down her cheeks. â€Å"I'm never going to do it. Never ever ever.† I tried to pull out of her Amazonian embrace. â€Å"There, there,† I said weakly. â€Å"I'm sure you will.† Sniffling, she stepped away and ran a hand over her eyes, making the mascara situation even worse. â€Å"No, I can't. I've tried and tried†¦nothing works.† I glanced over at the guys. They were all looking at me expectantly, like I should be able to explain how one succubus couldn't get laid. I doubted anyone could, though. â€Å"Okay,† I said at last. â€Å"Calm down, and we'll get to the bottom of it. But first, pull yourself together. You're a mess.† â€Å"I can't,† she wailed. â€Å"You're thinking like a human,† I chastised. â€Å"You can shape-shift that makeup mess away.† â€Å"No,† she said more adamantly. â€Å"You don't understand. I can't.† I stared at her, puzzled, then I understood. It was nearly impossible to see, but a faint shimmer was fading in and out around her body. She was having trouble holding this form. Her energy was so low that she was losing her shape-shifting power. â€Å"Whoa,† I said. I'd never seen a succubus that bad. I'd been that low once, but it had been after engaging in a major battle of shape-shifting. Tears started welling up in her eyes again. â€Å"What's going to happen? What if I run out and – † On and on she went. I sighed. There is a moment in every girl's life when she must choose between the lesser of evils. When you're a succubus, those moments come quite often. And right now, I had to choose. I could risk Niphon never leaving town or I could kiss Tawny. Lesser of evils. Standing on my tiptoes, I pressed my lips to hers and cut off her babbling. Her lips tasted like bubble gum, probably from the lip gloss. It wasn't a big kiss or anything – barely any tongue – but it was enough. A surge of power poured out of me and into her. Breaking the kiss, I stepped away and looked at her. Her form had stabilized. Meanwhile, I was now down even more in my own energy, but nowhere near the low she'd just experienced. Her blue eyes widened to an impossible size. â€Å"How†¦what was that?† â€Å"A kiss,† I said dryly. â€Å"Something you've apparently got to learn about too.† Seeing her still-stunned look, I shook my head. â€Å"We're vessels for power and life, Tawny. Usually, it passes into our bodies, but sometimes it can be transferred out to other creatures. Succubi and incubi can share it with each other. What I just gave you should keep you going a little longer.† â€Å"I don't know,† said Cody suddenly. â€Å"I think you should give her some more, just to be safe.† Tawny touched her lips, like she could still feel my kiss. â€Å"Wow.† Her form shifted, and the mascara mess vanished. Her normal, eerily perfect face reappeared. I sat down on the arm of the couch, near Peter. â€Å"Okay. Now let's figure out how in the world this is even possible. What happened to Nick the auctioneer? You guys seemed pretty close last night.† â€Å"Well,† she mumbled, staring down at her feet. â€Å"That kind of fell apart.† â€Å"How could it fall apart? He was drooling all over you!† â€Å"Yeah, but he had to stay and close up there, so we couldn't go out last night. I left without him. Today, I called to set up a date, and he said he didn't want to. That he was cool just giving the money to charity and not to bother with anything else.† â€Å"He said that?† I asked incredulously. I eyed her suspiciously. â€Å"What did you say to him beforehand?† â€Å"What do you mean?† â€Å"Did you just call and ask him out right away?† â€Å"Well, no†¦we made small talk. Not that it did much good. He seemed kind of bored by the end.† Surprise, surprise. Tawny didn't strike me as the world's greatest conversationalist. I could only imagine what she must have babbled about to scare him off. â€Å"Okay,† I said, disappointed. Nick had seemed like a sure thing. â€Å"Maybe you shouldn't, like, talk to them. What about the strip club job? Did you follow up on that?† She jerked her head up and looked like she might cry again. â€Å"I tried! They said I wasn't qualified.† Even the guys couldn't stay out of this now. â€Å"How can you not qualify for a job as a stripper?† asked Cody. â€Å"Yeah, don't you just have to take off your clothes?† asked Hugh. â€Å"They said I couldn't dance,† she explained. We all stared. â€Å"Okay†¦Ã¢â‚¬  I wondered if maybe I should have read the mentor's handbook after all. â€Å"Let's see it.† â€Å"See what?† â€Å"You. Dancing.† Tawny looked around the room in terror. â€Å"Here?† she squeaked. â€Å"In front of all of you?† â€Å"If you can't take your clothes off in front of your friends,† said Peter, â€Å"who can you take them off in front of?† I elbowed him. â€Å"I can't,† she whispered. â€Å"Tawny,† I barked. My voice held the authority of a drill sergeant. She jumped. â€Å"I am not making out with you until the end of time. You want to do this, then you've got to work for it. Now, take off your clothes.† â€Å"Oh,† said Hugh. â€Å"I've waited ten years to hear you say that to another woman.† I found my stereo remote and turned it on. â€Å"Tainted Love† started playing. â€Å"I can't strip to the eighties!† â€Å"Tawny!† With a terrified look in my direction, she moved to the center of the living room. At first, she just kind of stood there, and then, slowly, she tried to step in time to the music. I say tried because she was so off the beat, it was astonishing. I don't think I could have been that out of sync if I'd tried. Finally, she gave up moving her feet at all and simply focused on her upper body, swaying her arms and torso slightly. It was the most awkward, uncomfortable spectacle I'd ever seen. At last, she decided she'd â€Å"danced† enough and began removing her clothing. She apparently couldn't multitask, however, and gave up all pretenses of moving to the music. Instead, she stood still and started unbuttoning her zebra-print blouse. Her fingers fumbled on the third button down, and it took her almost thirty seconds to unfasten it. â€Å"Stop, please stop,† I said, turning off the music. â€Å"Your goal is to take years off people's lives, but not like this.† â€Å"Was I bad?† she asked. â€Å"No,† I said. â€Å"You were terrible.† She stuck her lower lip out in a pout. â€Å"Oh, come on,† said Cody, ever the kindly one in our group. â€Å"That's kind of mean.† â€Å"Hey, I'm supposed to be a teacher, not a friend.† â€Å"The School of Georgina is a harsh one,† intoned Peter solemnly. â€Å"It's not that easy,† Tawny said, looking at me accusingly. â€Å"If you really are my teacher, then show me how to do it.† Four faces watched me expectantly. I started to protest, then remembered that helping Tawny meant Niphon would leave Seattle that much faster. Getting up off the couch arm, I took her place in the center of the room. â€Å"Okay, first off, you're missing two things. One, listen to the music and move with it. There's a beat. Find it. Move your feet and your body – your whole body – to it. Become part of it.† Tawny's blank look told me I was getting too esoteric for her. â€Å"Then, when it comes time to take off your clothes, remember that you're not doing it to be practical. You're doing it for someone else. Make it dramatic. Make it artful.† I turned the stereo on and clicked to the next track on my mix CD. It was â€Å"Iron Man.† â€Å"Hey!† Tawny said. â€Å"How come you get metal?† â€Å"Not even you can strip to Ozzy,† scoffed Hugh. I gave him a sidelong glance. â€Å"I can strip to anything, baby.† I started moving. For me, there was no thought required at all. I'd been a dancer since my mortal days. I loved it. There was no music. There was no me. We were the same being. My body flowed to its melody and rhythm, every one of my movements graceful and sensual. I didn't even pay attention to my friends. I just let myself get lost in the dance. I didn't have much on to begin with. I had panties and a bra underneath the robe, but I intended to leave them on. I was close to my friends but not that close. But, I made the most out of taking off the robe, letting my hands slide over my silk-covered body. I slowly untied the sash, drawing the experience out, and finally let it slip to the floor. I took my heels off with equal deliberateness. Literally never missing a beat, I told Tawny, â€Å"When you've got this down, we'll move onto lap dances.† I moved over to where Hugh sat on the loveseat and positioned my legs so that I straddled him while barely touching him. A stripper's art. I ran my fingers through my hair, my body still rippling like a ribbon. â€Å"Hey, big spender,† I said. He looked appreciative but more amused than anything else. He reached into his pocket and pulled out a one dollar bill. â€Å"Hugh,† I said. â€Å"Don't insult me.† With a sigh, he produced a five and tucked it underneath my bra strap. â€Å"Hey, Seth,† Cody suddenly said. I looked up and saw Seth standing in the doorway. When Tawny had come barreling through, I'd left the door ajar. A look of comic bemusement was on his face. â€Å"Hey,† he said, studying me. â€Å"So†¦you're paying for dinner?† I crawled off Hugh's lap and pulled the five out of my strap. â€Å"Only if you want to go to Taco Bell.† Cody handed me a twenty. â€Å"Make it a Red Lobster.† My friends got up and moved toward the door, and I assured a distraught Tawny that I'd think of something to help her. Giving up any more attempts at manually getting ready, I shape-shifted into jeans, low boots, and another cashmere sweater. A three-quarter-length gray wool coat covered it all. I grinned at Seth, who was shaking his head ruefully. Compared to the other things he knew I did, an impromptu striptease was pretty low-key. â€Å"And you thought I didn't earn my keep.† â€Å"No comment,† he said, taking hold of my hand.

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